The purpose of this brief is to compare expectations published in our May 31st report with realities that have transpired as of mid-October. In particular, we want to highlight the impact of the “August collapse/September meltdown” of the stock market, which weakened the economy and caused consumer and investor sentiment to darken (Exhibit 1). This update focuses on key issues impacting commercial real estate, with a particular focus on how the economy, government, fundamentals, equity and REITs, and debt markets have performed against our predictions and the conventional wisdom that prevailed earlier in 2011. While some of the drivers have behaved in line with our spring forecast, others moved in unexpected directions that shed light on the outlook for 2H11 and into 2012.
Download the report here: October Surprises 2011