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Top Ten 2013 - NYCREW
Did You Believe Us in 2011 & 2012? What we think for 2013.
February 2013
- Top Ten Issues 2013
1. Economy & Residential:
“Back at No. 1” Now is the time for REAL economic growth.
2. Business Investment:
“Geared toward domestic employment growth”
3. Tax Reform:
“Shifting out of neutral”
4. Capital Markets & Alternatives:
“CRE outpaces alternatives”
5. Government Intervention:
“Regulatory momentum but no spike”
6. Global:
“We are not globalizing, we are already global.”
7. Banks & Regulatory:
“Keep it in Drive; no time for coasting”
8. Traditional CRE Fundamentals:
“This is a healthy recovery for CRE.” A slow steady climb Read more »
October Surprises, Fall Update 2012
This is a continuation of our recurring series of reports looking at major trends in the capital markets. Following on our October 2011 report "October Surprises" this year we look at what events have been "Big Surprises" and "No Surprise" so far in 2012 as well as looking forward to the "Next Surprises" that may be on tap as we prepare to move into 2013.
October 2012
Top Ten Preview: Macro Issues Impacting CRE in the Critical Election Year of 2012
This year's Top Ten Preview -- the 11th Edition of Dennis Yeskey's annual analyis -- is different. We have a very unconventional pick for top factor influencing CRE: Government Intervention.
January 2012
- Our mission is to take a forward look at macro/micro economic and CRE trends to provide clients and investors with the cutting-edge thought leadership and intellectual capital needed to stay ahead of the market.
- This report is the most recent in a series, issued periodically over the past 15 years. In addition to our macro analysis, we also analyze micro issues on a special request basis
(e.g. specific regulatory/accounting issues impacting CRE). - We passionately believe in the importance of truly independent fact-based research, which is in short supply today.
Fall Update - 'October Surprises'
The purpose of this brief is to compare expectations published in our May 31st report with realities that have transpired as of mid-October. In particular, we want to highlight the impact of the “August collapse/September meltdown” of the stock market, which weakened the economy and caused consumer and investor sentiment to darken (Exhibit 1).
This update focuses on key issues impacting commercial real estate, with a particular focus on how the economy, government, fundamentals, equity and REITs, and debt markets have performed against our predictions and the conventional wisdom that prevailed earlier in 2011. While some of the drivers have behaved in line with our spring forecast, others moved in unexpected directions that shed light on the outlook for 2H11 and into 2012.
October 2011
Commercial Real Estate -- Predictions for Second Half of 2011
Commercial real estate is a investment that is rising in the capital markets arena.The outlook is positive despite and because of massive uncertainity in the stock market,the economy,regulatory changes,and the political enviroment.The forecast for the second half of 2011 is based on economic drivers ( slowing down and less than predicted by most forecastors ),the residential recovery ( which is not happening ),new regulatory rules ( which will not be as offensive as convential wisdom indicates ), improving CRE fundamentals ( which are tracking historic norms but slighly slower ), along with the equity markets ( still strong )and the debt markets ( improving but relying too much on a dysfunctional CMBS industry ).What is hot-- multifamily,hotels,selected CBD offices especially NYC, infill retail in urban areas especially luxury oriented brands. Watch REITS including global reits. May 31,2011.
May 2011
- Our mission is to take a forward look at evolving CRE trends to provide clients and investors with the cutting-edge thought leadership and intellectual capital needed to stay ahead of the market.
- This report is the most recent in a series, issued periodically over the past 15 years.
- The approach and format are consistent with previous versions, including commentary on top trends, supplemented by capital markets and real estate research.
Commercial Real Estate: Predictions, Forecast, and Outlook for 2011-2013
Politically important insights into commercial real estate outlook for the next 2 years. Commercial Real Estate already experiencing radical recovery even as economy goes slower than predicted.
January 2011
Many bubbles already occurring -- especially in apartments as investors pour in to numerous CRE projects including hospitality and retail.
Excerpts:
Last Two Years Have Been Very Unusual/Strange – Have Not Evolved as Predicted. Minimal Distressed Selling/Workouts/Bankruptcy.
- Economy suffers through “Great Recession.”
- CRE also suffers massive declines in values, fundamentals, and, most importantly, significant cash flow and refinancing issues.
American Bankruptcy Institute - Commercial Real Estate: The Next Tsunami Approaches
Powerpoint presentation for the 22nd Annual Winter Leadership Conference in December of 2010. Presented by Dennis Yeskey for Alix Partners.
December 2010
Commercial Real Estate Gridlock: What is in Store for 2010?
Presented by Dennis Yeskey for Alix Partners at the European American Chamber of Commerce, New York.
May 2010
CRE Point of View - 2010 Q1
What's Ahead? Opportunities could be bigger than in the early 90's for investors and lenders who have their houses in order. Prepared by Dennis Yeskey for Alix Partners.
March 2010
Commercial Real Estate: The 2010 Window of Opportunity
Presented at the NYCREW event in New York City by Dennis Yeskey, representing Alix Partners.
January 2010
